Our brighter future ahead

Check out this PDF. It details how each of the groups in Iraq answered relevant poll questions. It also shows that if the Shiites were accurately represented the poll would have been more than a good sign it would have shown the extraordinary positive things going on in Iraq.

Apparently only 24% of Sunnis thought the invasion was called for. Meanwhile 51% of Shiites and 87% of Kurds felt that way. How many were against the invasion? 63% of Sunnis, 35% of Shiites and 9% of Kurds. It's pretty clear how much more positive this poll would have been had it not been skewed based on these numbers alone.

Read the rest, it's quite interesting.

This is simply too much. How embarrassing for the Spanish, AQ is actually accepting their promise to pull out of Iraq and warning them if they fail to live up to it then... BOOM.

If this doesn't make the Spanish angry enough to stay in Iraq then they will be, and they will deserve to be, the laughing stock of the world. They have already put on a pathetic display of appeasement but this would just be over the top. I anxiously await their next move... will they recover some modicum of their honor or will they go down in history as the most pathetic, cowardly appeasers in modern times.

You know that poll that everyone is referring to in Iraq that shows the Iraqis are in fact very happy about Saddam's removal and optimistic about their future? Well the truth of the matter is that what’s happening in Iraq is so positive that even with a blatant attempt by the pollsters to skew the results it still came out positive. How, you ask? Well look at this PDF and you’ll see the following tidbits (they're all the way at the bottom)...

Although the Sunnis, who are the people who lost the most when Saddam was taken down (being that Saddam was a Sunni), represent only about 20% of the population, they were FORTY percent of the people polled in this survey! That's 2 to 1 overrepresentation of the group that had the most to lose and has shown the most anger at Saddam being taken down. The Shiites, which represent 60% of the population, were represented by only THIRTY THREE percent of those polled. As we all remember the Shiites are the ones who tried to revolt against Saddam on multiple occasions and were put down with extreme force. So, of course the pollsters represented them in the poll as one half of their true representation in the population. I mean how else could they get the results they needed to make America (and Bush) look bad, right?

In addition to all this, you'll notice that the poll was mostly conducted in central Iraq (the infamous Sunni Triangle), to the tune of 57% of those polled. I guess it would come as a complete surprise to the pollsters that this is where all the terrorist activity has been and thus people would be more likely to speak poorly of the war and occupation, no?

What's amazing about this whole thing is that even with this blatant attempt to skew the polls, and affect American opinion, the results were overwhelmingly positive in that the Iraqis feel their lives are far better off today than under Saddam and they feel they will be even better in the future. Given the results were so positive even with this manipulation, could you imagine what they would have been if the Iraqis were accurately represented? Apparently things are going far better in Iraq than even I thought.

A kurdish uprising in northern Syria has picked up steam.

Considering that Assad has been so helpful in keeping the border between Iraq and Syria open so all the well wishers from Syria can come in and blow up innocent Iraqis, I think we should return the favor by keeping the border open for the Iraqi kurdish militia to show their gratitude to Assad for his treatment of their brothers in Syria. At the very least for purely humanitarian reasons we need to send in a division of American troops to ensure that the kurds are not denied their rights, no? The UN and Amnesty International will fully endorse us just trying to make sure the kurds aren't mistreated, right?

I think this may quite possibly be it. Iran may well be in full blown revolution and no one knows about it. Then again, it may all be exaggeration.

What do you think based on this and this and this and this?

What appears to have started as a small uprising in the north a week ago has spread to other cities. It seems to be culminating in a holiday the Iranians call "Tchahar Shanbe Soori" or "Fire Fiest" (not sure if they meant feast or actually did mean fiest as in root of fiesta, but that's how it was written so that's how I'm writing it). Apparently the mullahs banned this holiday because of its "pagan" roots and the Iranian people aren't very happy about that. In fact they're using the event as an opportunity to organize and cause quite a bit of havoc for the theocracy. The question is how far will it go?

This election in Spain will be noted throughout history as the most disgraceful act of appeasement in over 60 years. The popular party was well ahead in every poll up until this attack. Even though the popular party's leadership has lowered Spain's unemployment rate from 22% to 11% in 8 years and increased wages from 78% of the EU average to 89% of the EU average in the same time, one attack by terrorists has broken the will of the Spanish people. Today we witnessed the "Appeasement Election".

What's incredibly sad for the world is that through their spineless act the Spanish have doomed western civilization to terrorist attacks just before democratic elections for the foreseeable future. The terrorist learned a valuable lesson today, there are populations who are easily frightened into submission and policies of great nations can be altered by one brutal act of slaughter. It can not even be said that the Spanish victims died in vain. The truth is far worse for them; their deaths served the will of their enemies.

Expect large scale attacks on the UK for their upcoming election and expect attacks just before our own November election. I know that Americans will show greater resolve in the face of these attacks, even as our allies crumble into submission. An attack on America would only strengthen our unity and will. If history is a guide then the same will be true of England. I hope our security forces can prevent disaster but, if the day comes, it gives me comfort to know that we will not submit as the Spanish did today. We are made of sterner stuff than those that chose appeasement.

Today is a day that will live in infamy for Spain for all of history. Unfortunately for Spain they cannot blame one man for their failure, as Chamberlain is blamed for the appeasement to Hitler that led to World War 2. The Spanish population itself has chosen appeasement this day. The Spanish have handed Al Queda its first victory since 9/11.

I'm wondering what the repercussions of the terrorist attack in Spain will be. Will Europe blame themselves for working with America in the war on terrorism and thus attribute this slaughter of innocents under the "we deserved it" category? Or, will Europe open its eyes to the threat that is facing the world? Today's election in Spain will be telling.

Andrew Sullivan translated this report from Le Monde providing us with a glimpse of the French reaction.

"If the trail back to Al-Qaida is confirmed, Europeans should rethink the war against Islamic fundamentalist terrorism, as did the United States after the attacks of September 11, 2001. . . . Will March 11 have in Europe the same effect as September 11 in the US? After having spontaneously expressed their solidarity with the Americans, the Europeans, preoccupied with other forms of terrorism, found that the Americans had become consumed with paranoia. Contrary to the latter in 2001, Europeans today discover not only their own vulnerability, but also that they are confronted with a new phenomenon, mass terrorism. Like the Americans, they may now be forced to admit that a new form of world war has been declared, not against Islam but against totalitarian and violent fundamentalism. That the world's democracies are confronted with the same menace and should act together, using military means and waging at the same time a war for their ideals."

While reading this quote I'm reminded of Le Monde's reaction to 9/11 "Today, we are all Americans." It made for good rhetoric but, when it came down to it, that's all it was. Rhetoric. They were Americans until America needed their help. After the attacks in Spain I saw and heard that line over and over "Today, we are all Spaniards." Every time I saw it I cringed because it means nothing. The thought that it is meant to convey was destroyed after 9/11. Now when I see it, I can't help but get the feeling that it's insincere, that it's cynically mocking Spain as it once mocked us. I don't doubt the intentions of those using this line, it's the line itself that I take issue with. So, will this well meaning paragraph prove to be more of the same cynical rhetoric?

The pragmatist in me (which is the part that ultimately rules my decision making) says that I hope Europe's eyes are opened. I hope they don't retreat from the world stage leaving us alone to fight against those that would see our way of life ended.

But, there is another part of me.

Sullivan translated another line that reads "Nothing, evidently, no cause, no context, no supposedly political objective, justifies this kind of [large scale] terrorism." Sounds like things have changed as we were so used to hearing the justifications coming from Europe, including Le Monde, as to why America's actions brought 9/11 upon itself. I find it deeply insulting to read this. Apparently they value Europe's innocents, but not America's. Apparently there is NO justification that can be made for the mass slaughter of civilians in Europe yet for Americans plenty of justifications can be made.

If Europe does a 180 on terrorism I will accept their support (being a pragmatist) but when this is all over I'll never forget the truth of the matter. WE are Americans and THEY are Europeans, we don't owe them our allegiance and I will never again expect theirs.

I remember years ago scientist made the claim that they developed tabletop nuclear fusion. Turned out to be a hoax and the scientist involved became pariahs in the science community. Well, it's happening again and this time it looks like it is the real deal. I did a little more research and it turns out that what they developed is highly reproducible, has been seen by many scientist and the radiation released matches that results expected for nuclear fusion.

The technique the scientist use is to take a liquid called deuterated acetone, which contains a "heavy" version of hydrogen that has a neutron in its core, introduce microscopic bubbles into the liquid and cause them to expand to 100,000 times their original size through using ultrasound. Then, the bubbles collapse with such force, because they've been expanded so greatly, that they create conditions inside of them that reach 10 million degrees Celsius and 1000 atmospheric pressures… enough to cause the hydrogen atoms to merge, in other words nuclear fusion.

This is under peer review now but scientist that used to laugh at these claims are now taking them very seriously with these new well measured, highly reproducible results. That being said, even if this is fusion it might just serve the purpose of allowing us to study fusion in the lab... there may be no way to scale this technique up to something useful...

Did Kerry have his people send this letter to the Tehran Times?!? If so I'm in complete and utter shock. I'm leaning towards it being un-true... if not I think we have all just witnessed the lowest most despicable act in an election campaign. Besides the fact that Iran is a theocracy with one of the worst human rights records in the world. Besides the fact that the Iranian mullahs just kicked all the reformers out of future elections for parliament. Besides the fact that Iran's parliament chants "death to America" daily. Besides the fact that the supreme leader of Iran has called for the nuclear annihilation of Israel even if the response kills millions of Arabs and Persians (apparently he thinks it's worth it...). Besides all that... what the hell could he possibly be thinking of directly interfering with the foreign policy of the commander in chief during war time. Is he out of his freaking mind?!? No.... it’s got to be fake.

UPDATE: Whew! It appears that this is just a boilerplate letter sent to Americans abroad. Looks like the Tehran Times got their hands on it and is playing it off like it was a letter to them. As you can see in Kerry's material, the Tehran Times actually lopped off a few paragraphs that would make this clear.

UPDATE 2: Btw, it's insightful to know who the Iranian theocracy is pulling for in this election campaign... hmmm now why would a sworn enemy of the US be supporting Kerry over Bush? Something to think about...

There was an article in the The Times today about an interesting letter that was discovered in an Al-Qaeda safehouse. The letter appears to have been written by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to the Al-Qaeda leadership complaining that they are losing the battle in Iraq and they should either pack it up and fight in other lands or attack the Shiites in Iraq and try to force civil war. It seems their main difficulty is in the fact that American troops are moving out of areas and being replaced with Iraqi defense and police forces. In addition with the move towards an Iraqi government, hopefully by July 1st, the will have lost any pretext for operations in Iraq. They believe their only hope is to cause civil war before the power turnover happens and as they say, the clock is ticking.

Overall it's an insightful look into the minds of our enemy. When you look at the detached logic of the letter it is apparent that they know they are on the wrong side and not trying to help the Iraqi people. They state that their goal is to cause as much suffering and strife among the Iraqis in the hopes of defeating the US. What I'm surprised about is that while it's obvious to us that this is the case I didn't expect it to be obvious to them. I always imagined them to be deluding themselves into thinking they were on the side of good and they were looking out for the best interests of the Iraqis. But it's clear from this letter that they actually fully know that they're goal is not in the best interests of Iraqis. I wonder if they are jumping through mental loops to try and justify their goals as being good or if they just don't care and know they're evil?

Looks like the preliminary number for GDP is only 4%. I was pretty sure we'd hit at least 5% and get closer to 6... look out for a revision upwards in a month when the numbers go through there first revision. The monthly numbers that we'd been getting for the service sector and manufacturing over the last 3 months just don't add up to a 4% GDP. Remember, these are just the preliminary numbers based on incomplete data. Next month we get the first official estimate and then the month after that the final release.

Evan Coyne Maloney, of Brain Terminal fame, braved the cold winter of NY to interview attendees of Gore's speech on global warming. The clip he made available is probably the one that had the most outlandish and extremist views and probably (hopefully?) not representative of the left. But, it's still highly entertaining none the less.

UPDATE: Btw, while you're at Brain Terminal don't forget to check out Evan's other videos.

Here's the video.... would you vote for this man?

From this account of Bill Clinton's speech to Arab intellectuals in Qatar, he made an impassioned and compelling case supporting America's actions post 9/11.

He backed Israel, attacking Yasser Arafat for failing the Palestinian people. He backed Bush's foreign policy, stating that he would have followed the same course of action in Afghanistan and beyond. And on top of that, he also called upon the Arab nations to look inwards in their search for the root to their failings as opposed to looking outward to place blame on others (Israel, US). I haven't read the transcript yet, but once I do I might have more to say.

Between Dean's crash and burn and Clinton's triumphant speech the Democrats have shown that they aren't as lost as I feared... at least for today.

I guess Dean's rantings about pollers under polling him were a little off.... he got trounced!

Looks like the Democrats got their heads out of their collective butts and decided to vote for someone that could actually compete with Bush. This presidential election might be a bit closer than I had originally thought...

UPDATE: Hey, maybe people will finally start ignoring Gore being that his endorsed candidate has been utterly humiliated... we can only hope ;)

UPDATE 2: Ok, Dean is a complete and utter mental case. If you saw his loss speech in Iowa you know exactly what I'm talking about... whoa, that was freaky, scary and hilarious all at the same time...

UPDATE 3: Audio clip of Dean losing it, courtesy of Drudge.

Scientist are inching ever closer to linking up machines to our thoughts. It now appears that we don't need to have a full understanding of the brain in order to directly control computers with our thoughts. We can instead leverage the learning capacity of our own minds to form the bridge between the mechanical and the biological.

Apparently, if you just connect a computer to read our neural activity and do something (for example move a robot arm) based on that activity, our brains will learn what activity to provide the computer with so that it does what we want it to do. Eventually, our brains actually internalize the computer's functionality similar to how the functionality of our arm is internalized. When we want to use our arm we don't think to ourselves "I want to lift my arm and grab that cup of coffee" we just "will" our arm to carry out the task and it does it. What this research is showing is that our brain is not limited to internalizing our own limbs, but can internalize anything that is linked to it. With enough neurons linked to a mechanical arm it would seem to be as much a part of our own body as our real arm is.

What’s interesting to think about is how functionality would be internalized that does not already exist to us. For example we already have arms so we know and can imagine how our brains would internalize new ones. But, what about something completely new, like a tail, or even something non-physical, like the lighting of our homes? Would the brain be able to internalize and control that as simply as it “wills” our own limbs to do what we want them to? Would the lighting system of our house “feel” like it was part of us? What about something like the Internet? The answers to these questions are probably not that far away based on what’s been achieved already....

Would you really brag about winning backing from.... McGovern? And here I thought the worst thing that could happen to a campaign was if Jimmy Carter endorsed you...

Maybe Dean will come back with a Jane Fonda endorsement to one up Clark ;)

UPDATE: LOL, Dean being a man who refuses to be outdone, went out and got the Carter endorsement... looks like Carter made him really work for it too.

You gotta check these out...

The Dinar has skyrocketed in value over the past few months and is now flirting with the 1000 Dinars per US dollar level according the Iraqi bloggers here and here. Before the war, the Dinar was over 2000 Dinars to 1 US Dollar. The international press can say what they want about how Iraq is a dismal failure, a doomed exercise in US imperialism, but the objective view of the markets says otherwise. The truth is that people throughout the world believe in Iraq's future and they're putting their money where their mouth is.... unlike the press. The truth is in the value of the Iraqi Dinar.

The Iowa caucus is heating up... I gotta admit I was caught off guard by this. I thought Dean had it locked up.

More reports of Baathists and other insurgents realizing that their future is tied to a successful Iraq and not a civil war. This could finally be signaling the end of the insurgency and the birth of the first Arab democracy. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the media around the world, I have a feeling they will just ignore it...

This article could be exaggerating the changing viewpoints of locals in the "Sunni Triangle", but if not this is great news.

Looks like our fingerprint/photograph screening system has already netted 30 suspected criminals in its first 3 days of operations. If these people are truly criminals trying to enter into our country then I've greatly underestimated the value of the new screening program. It appears that the system isn't just being used to check entries and exits of foreign nationals but is also being used to compare fingerprints of foreign nationals to databases of known criminals.

That got me thinking... If we swept training camps in Afghanistan, among other places, for fingerprints those could also be used for the new screening program. A system like that could be highly effective, you wouldn't necessarily know who people were but you would be able to tell if someone that has been to a terrorist training camp was trying to enter the country...

Next week Bush will announce a return to the Moon with a goal of a manned Mars expedition according to Fox. The strategy calls for a permanent manned Moon base and a launch for Mars at least a decade away. I'm not sure what to think about this and I'd like to see the details but it would be incredibly exciting to see men on the Moon again and I can't even imagine what it would feel like to see men take their first steps on Mars.

Looks like they were waiting to announce this until the Mars rover proved a success or failure... it would be hard for Bush to justify such ambitious space goals in the face of a Mars failure. There seems to have been more riding on this recent mission to Mars than we first assumed.

So much happened while I was away.... we're on mars, Afghanistan got a constitution, mad cow hit the US, cancelled flights due to terror alerts... it's amazing how much news is made every day, I feel like I've been away for months with all that's happened.. Not just a few weeks.

Btw, if you're curious the trip was amazing. I highly recommended anyone who's thinking about visiting Central America to follow through and do it. Its odd how many people visit Europe each year and don't think to just take the short trip to Costa Rica or Belize. Oh well....

So anyway Denmark's Transportation Minister, Flemming Hansen, had a ridiculous quote in this article. According to Mr. Hansen "putting armed guards on passenger planes is the same as saying that the terrorists have won." Wow... is that what its come to in Europe? Just the very concept of forcefully defending yourselves from attack is interpreted as losing? It's no wonder why Europe is in a panic about the US reaction to 9/11...

I'm travelling for a bit with some buddies... heading to Belize, Guatamala then Costa Rica for a little vaca, Central America style.

Well, happy holidays and have a great new year! See ya back here on the 6th ;)

Scaled Composites's SpaceShipOne is an attempt by Burt Rotan, who built the Voyager airplane that went around the Earth without refueling, to bring space travel to the masses. SpaceShipOne reached a milestone the other day and successfully achieved supersonic velocity. A timeline for the first space launch hasn't been set, but many analysts think it will be within a year and possibly just a few months. If successful Burt Rotan will win the x-prize, a $10 million dollar contest to develop the first cheap reusable space platform that can launch 3 people the brink of space twice in 2 weeks.

Also, for a while now people have been wondering where SpaceShipOne's funding has been coming from. It's been a secret until yesterday when it was finally confirmed to be Paul Allen, co-founder of Microsoft.

Looks like France and Germany are leaning towards forgiving a good part of Saddam's debt. This is an excellent gesture on their part; hopefully the noble words are followed through with noble actions.

So, how did various groups react to Saddam's capture?

The Vatican is appalled at the treatment of Saddam. Cardinal Renato Martino thinks that the US forces treated him "like a cow" and "felt pity for this man destroyed". I hope the good Cardinal hasn't used up all his pity on Saddam, hopefully he still has just a little pity left in him for the hundreds of thousands that Saddam tortured, murdered then dumped in unmarked graves.

Rep. Jim McDermott, the guy that went to Iraq so he could call our president a liar on enemy territory, says that the US could have captured Saddam "a long time ago if they wanted." He goes on to say "I don't know that it was definitely planned on this weekend, but I know they've been in contact with people all along who knew basically where he was. It was just a matter of time till they'd find him. It's funny," McDermott added, "when they're having all this trouble, suddenly they have to roll out something." Ok, this guy is the king of all jackasses. Just who the hell are the people voting for him? I won't take the time to break down his asinine statements because that would imply they deserved anything other than to be laughed at.

And then there are the Iraqis themselves who celebrated the capture of the mass murdering tyrant. Makes me wonder... If not the Iraqis then exactly whose interests do people like McDermott and Cardinal Renato Martino represent?

When Saddam was captured he had a briefcase in his possession which provided actionable intelligence on terrorist cells in Baghdad. Targeted raids have already been launched resulting in the capture of several high level regime figures and they in turn have provided intelligence of additional cells.

It's looking like Saddam was more than just a symbol for the terrorists, he had at least some level of control. Hopefully working from the top of the terrorist pyramid down will allow us to unravel the infrastructure in weeks as opposed to months or years...

I'm WAY too happy right now to blog but.... they caught him hiding in a dirt hole, like the insect he is!

The Iraqis are claiming to have stumbled upon a document that shows Mohammed Atta, the 9/11 hijacker, was trained by Abu Nidal in Iraq with Saddam's blessing. The purpose of the training was to attack agreed upon, unspecified targets.

There are quite a few things to be suspicious of regarding this document. It seems unlikely to me that Saddam, or his chief intelligence officer, would keep something like this around. The Iraqis are also avoiding questions as to where they came upon this document. It's possible that this is because the document is a forgery and they simply didn't get their story straight before going public with it. Lastly, the Iraqis have motive. There is much to be gained by cementing US support in their fight to put the last nail in the Baathist coffin.

That being said, people that claim a Saddam/Bin Laden connection is impossible are being ridiculous. I don't believe for a second that Bin Laden's fundamentalism would preclude him from accepting aid from and collaborating with a secular regime. We have historical proof that he would gladly accept help from an enemy when facing a greater threat, as he was all too happy to accept US aid when fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. The thought that he would reject joining up with Saddam to fight "The Great Satan" is laughable.

My personal feeling is that Saddam and Bin Laden were in some type of communication, but whether they took it beyond that is unknown. To prove a link between Saddam and specifically the 9/11 attacks would require multiple pillars of evidence from multiple sources.

'Are You Kidding, Sir?': Fewer Than 1,000 Soldiers Were Ordered to Capture a City of 5 Million Iraqis. Theirs Is a Story That May Become Military Legend.

Just read it.

Update: Btw, it's an LA Times story so you'll need to register. It's free to register and the article is worth the time it'll take, trust me.

Amnesty International is now asking that we not release some prisoners because they will be mistreated in their countries of origin. Just a few months ago Amnesty demanded that we follow their interpretation of international law and return the prisoners to their countries of origin.

Will they just make up their minds? How about we just send them to Amnesty's offices in Switzerland, they'd be happy to look after them, right?

This cartoon from Day by Day says it all.



And then they wonder why their ratings are plummeting...

That article in the New York Times got me thinking about human civilization. It always bothered me that humans, in our current form, existed for about 120,000 years but did virtually nothing to advance until about 10,000 years ago. Then, as we're taught, suddenly 10,000 years ago we developed agriculture which led to the development of civilization. But I was never given an explanation of why it took us 110,000 years to make this leap. After all, people 100,000 years ago were just as smart and inventive as people today. So what gives?

So I decided to check out the history of ice ages and found this graph that was compiled using data from ice cores to determine the level of green house gases and temperatures for the last 420,000 years. Some interesting facts present themselves...

The first is that the warm (interglacial) periods are actually the rarity and occur almost like clockwork about every hundred thousand years. They then last for a few thousand years before we are drawn into another ice age for the next 100,000. The world we see today is not the norm; it's the period in-between norms.

The second is that for all modern human history we have been in an ice age until just 11,000 years ago. This is the exact timeframe that man first experimented with farming and civilization. It's pretty compelling evidence that man didn't advance much for the first 110,000 years, not because he didn't think of it, but because during the ice age it was simply impossible. After all, how much farming can you do when there's a mile and a half of ice piled on top of the Hudson Bay?

The third is that the current interglacial period is very different than those that preceded it. The past interglacial periods only lasted a few thousand years followed by a plunge back into another ice age. This one has lasted 11,000 years and is still going strong. We are living on borrowed time. There is something different occurring and it appears that it started occurring 8,000 years ago when green house gas emissions suddenly stopped dropping and started increasing, delaying our reentrance into another ice age and allowing for human civilization to continue. Whether Dr. Ruddiman is right and human civilization is the cause of this delay or whether we are lucky and just benefiting from the delay is up for argument. But either way it's a scary thought when you realize that we are way past due for another ice age and we're messing with our environment in ways we don't understand.

Omar, who was at the demonstration, said more than 10,000 people showed up. Not bad... it's a start. Now let's see how the "news media" cover this.

Btw, I've taken to putting editorial quotes around "news media" in response to their editorial quotes around terms such as "liberate" and "terrorist". After all, how can they be a news outlet if they introduce editorial opinion into their "news"?

UPDATE: Zeyad, a friend of Omar's in Iraq, has made a photo album of the demonstration (album1, album2, album3). Also, this is the first article I've seen on it. So how much longer does the Anti-American press plan on referring to the terrorists as "resistance" in the face of this?

UPDATE 2: One of the comments on Zeyad's site, from "mg", juxtaposed the seriousness of the Iraqi demonstrations vs. the carnival atmosphere of the clowns in the anti-war demonstrations. The difference is striking; from these photos it is abundantly clear who has something to say and who thinks this whole thing is some kind of game for their amusement.

Iraqi anti-terror demonstrators




Anti-war protestors

Dr. Ruddiman, a university of Virginia professor, believes that the creation of human civilization stopped an impending Ice Age in its tracks. At the very end of the last Ice Age, 11,000 years ago, carbon dioxide levels started to decline in the natural cycle that had led to our previous Ice Ages and thawings. A lack of carbon dioxide causes an Ice Age by allowing heat to escape from the Earth back into space. Increased carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere, causing global warming. This decline in carbon dioxide, had it continued, would have thrown us into another Ice Age about 4 or 5 thousand years ago. But something else happened. Carbon dioxide levels reversed their course on a dime 8,000 years ago and began to rise again. The new theory attributes this rise to the discovery of farming techniques and the beginnings of deforestation releasing carbon dioxide back into the environment, thus disrupting the predictable trend that had occurred up till that point.

Our civilization may have disrupted a trend that had stopped the progression of man for 150,000 years... completely by accident. Did our inept careless attitude towards the environment actually lead to a more stable, sustainable world, allowing human civilization to achieve its potential for the first time in history? Now that would be ironic. Regardless, if Dr. Ruddiman is right then it shows we truly do have a massive effect on our climate and if we don't take actions to curb our effects the results can be unpredictable and dramatic.

I forgot one thing about the polls.... Liberal extremist simply don't vote, so what you see in the polls isn't what you'll see in the election. I wonder if we'll see the same thing with Dean in the Democratic primaries.

UPDATE: I spoke to soon... Gavin only leads 103,000 to 90,000 votes... it's gonna be a close one.

UPDATE 2: Gavin, the Democrat, pulled it out 52.5% to 47.5%.

I gotta say... I love this. I know it's petty, but those that opposed freeing 25 million people from tyrannical oppression should not benefit from those same people's newfound freedom. When the Iraqis take over their own country in July they will do business with whomever they want, but in the meantime... thanks Wolfowitz.

I've lived in San Francisco. It's dirty, large areas are dangerous and the street beggars are very aggressive. They will follow you around literally demanding that you give them some money. The most aggressive beggars won't even take change, in fact they'll get angry at you if you give them change instead of dollars. Anyway, I had looked forward to living in San Fran. I moved to lower Pacific Heights, for those that don't know it, that particular area is one of the nicer areas and the building I lived in was one of the nicer buildings in that area. I decided I wanted out of San Fran the day I walked out of my front door and there was a prostitute trying to drum up business right outside my building. I can go on and on, but that was just the final straw for me. The point? San Francisco is by far the worst run city I've ever lived in.

Anyway, looks like it might be about to get a lot worse. Apparently, the Green party candidate is leading in the polls against his Democratic rival by a margin of 52 to 45. When you look at the credentials of the two men it's easy to see why though. Mr. Gonzalez, the Green candidate, is a former bassist in a punk-rock band who does not own a watch or car. Obviously glowing credentials for someone you want to run your city, right? Mr. Newsom, the Democrat candidate, made his fortune in a chain of restaurants, lives in a mansion and married a former lingerie model... all crimes against humanity in San Francisco.

In the rest of the country Mr. Newsom would be a respected member of society and representative of the American Dream fulfilled. His successes are at least partially attributed to his work ethic and leadership acumen. In San Francisco success is a crime. Part of me hopes Mr. Gonzalez wins. I know what you're gonna say, how can I be so cruel, right? Well maybe, just maybe, his disastrous term as mayor would finally wake some people up in that part of the country and the ends will justify the means...

It's tough to say what exactly happened but it appears that a bicyclist was shot down in the street by Iranian soldiers. Riots followed in which the police cracked down hard and killed at least 5 people and possibly as many as 30. Details are sketchy but WorldNetDaily and the BBC have stories on it. I doubt this will expand into something more threatening to the regime, but it bears watching.

Looks like the anti-terror movement is picking up steam in Iraq. I'm still waiting for the "big one" in which tens of thousands of Iraqis march... hopefully it will come sooner rather than later.

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), a company founded by the man who started PayPal, has finally shown off their new Falcon rocket on December 4th in Washington D.C. SpaceX made two very interesting design decisions in building their rocket. One, it's almost completely reusable. In fact, besides the space shuttle, SpaceX's Falcon rocket is the only reusable rocket in the world. The second design decision they made was to focus on the bottom end of the launch market for small payloads. The Falcon can only launch up to 1000 pounds into low Earth orbit.

The Falcon is priced at only $6 million dollars per flight, compared to a Pegasus rocket that costs about $20 million per flight. The first Falcon rocket launch is expected to be in January and if succesful could completely change the way people think about space. Lowering launch costs to $6 million dollars puts the capability into the reach of universites and small organizations.

Looks like we only saw 57,000 net new jobs in November, quite a disappointment. But, we also saw the unemployment rate drop from 6.0% to 5.9% which was an unexpected positive surprise. It's pretty much impossible for both of these things to be true, a 0.1% drop in unemployment represents about a 150,000 net new jobs created (0.1% of about 150 million labor force).

The inconsistency is due to how these reports are compiled. The unemployment rate is generated from what's called the "household survey", while the number of net jobs created is generated from the "establishment survey". The household survey is compiled by literally calling 60,000 American households and interviewing them about their employment situation. Due to the sample size the household survey can be off by as much as 290,000 people employed in either direction.

The establishment survey is compiled using the payroll data of 160,000 businesses and government agencies. Making the sample size about 1/3 of all non-farm workers. Initially it would appear that the establishment survey is more reliable than the household survey, being that the household survey only represents the data for 60,000 households while the establishment survey represents the data for about 44 million workers. But, the establishment data has its own flaws. For example, it doesn't represent people who are self-employed, a growing % of our population, or take account of newly created businesses, also a growing % of our workforce. In addition, the establishment data for the previous month is just preliminary as it takes over 2 months to compile all of the payroll data. So this establishment survey report is just an estimate based on what they've been able to compile up to this point. This is why you frequently see adjustments in the results from the establishment survey a few months after this preliminary data is released.

There is some other important data released in the establishment survey that is often neglicted in the news. In November, the average number of hours worked per week increased from 33.8 to 33.9 and average hourly earnings increased by 1%. These extra 0.1 hours per week that we're all working would have represented about 400,000 new jobs created if the work week had stayed the same.

Iraqi political groups are planning anti-terror demonstrations for mid-January of next year. I'm not sure if they pushed the timeline back from the demonstrations planned for December 10th or if these are entirely new demonstrations.

The new lacquer coating, which contains microscopic ceramic particles, is 3 times more scratch resistant and provides 40% more gloss to a paint job. It should be available by the end of '03 on some vehicles.

Everyone seems to be jumping on to the nano bandwagon. It kinda reminds me of the dotcom boom where the term meant more than the business models that carried it. While this does appear to be a useful new product, I wonder does it really qualify as nano-tech? They don't release specifics on the process or the size of the particles in the coating but I have a feeling that it was the marketing people, not the inventors, that dubbed it "nano"...

Motorola expects their new Nano-Emissive Displays (NED) to revolutionize the television industry in less than 2 years. To accomplish this, they have developed a far cheaper method to organize nanotubes in an array. Motorola is not the only company that says they have NED technology... looks like the race is on.

The nanotubes in an NED work similar to the cathode ray tube in larger bulky televisions (not plasma or LCD). Both work by writing the picture on a screen by shooting electrons at it. Bulky televisions have 1 large cathode ray tube that works as an electron gun literally painting the image on the screen. NEDs have huge quantities of microscopic nanotubes that also work by firing electrons at the screen, but instead of painting across the entire picture each group of nanotubes is responsible for one picture element (pixel) of the screen. This technology will make TVs cheaper since their are less manufacturing steps and less moving parts, it will greatly increase picture quality, cut energy usage dramatically and allow for screens that are only 1" thick (plasma screens today are about 4").

This is only the tip of the iceberg for nanotech, the next 10 years are going to be very exciting ;)

As I said here, expect the Chinese to increase their rhetoric and threats regarding Taiwanese independence up until the referendum on March 20th. It's no surprise that the Chinese are now threatening that they are prepared to pay any price including the cost of lives to bring Taiwan into the fold. They are bluffing or... quite possibly they are insane. Either way, if Taiwan declares independence there isn't a damn thing China can do about it. They may attempt an invasion but this will end in disaster for China if the Taiwanese population makes the final decision that war is preferable to Chinese leadership.

Wow, I don't know what to say. Bush must be praying for this guy to win the democratic nomination. Here's some choice quotes from the interview:

JOSEPH NYE, DEAN, KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Governor, let me take you back to foreign policy.
You've been critical of President Bush's going into Iraq over weapons of mass destruction. But there are two countries that are much closer to nuclear weapons than Iraq ever was. And one of them is North Korea and the other is Iran. If you are elected president, how will your policy toward North Korea and Iran differ from the administration's?

DEAN: Well, first of all, we'll have bilateral negotiations with the North Koreans.
The idea that the most powerful nation on the face of the world is somehow going to be blackmailed if we don't agree on the size of the table, which is essentially what the present argument is about, is ludicrous.

No Dean, you're clueless... the point is to get the North Koreans to bind themselves to an agreement with China, their main benefactor. They have shown they have no problem tearing up agreements with us so we're hoping that if we get China, and others, involved they won't be so quick to turn their backs on their word. Especially with China who is their life support system providing food and oil to the crumbling regime. What part about this does Dean not get?

This president has wasted 15 months, or more, doing nothing about the fact that North Korea is almost certainly a nuclear power, that we can't tolerate North Korea as a nuclear power. We need to work with the Chinese, the Japanese, the South Koreans.

Hmmm, isn't this the exact opposite of what he said in the previous sentence.... I thought we didn't need to worry about the "size of the table"?

NYE: In Iran?

DEAN: Iran is a more complex problem because the problem support as clearly verifiable as it is in North Korea. Also, we have less-fewer levers much the key, I believe, to Iran is pressure through the Soviet Union.

Um, the Soviet Union?

The Soviet Union is supplying much of the equipment that Iran, I believe, most likely is using to set itself along the path of developing nuclear weapons.

The Soviet Union?!?

We need to use that leverage with the Soviet Union and it may require us to buying the equipment the Soviet Union was ultimately going to sell to Iran to prevent Iran from them developing nuclear weapons.

THE SOVIET UNION?!? What decade is this guy living in?
....
MATTHEWS: Would you break up Fox?
MATTHEWS: I’m serious.

DEAN: I’m keeping a...

MATTHEWS: Would you break it up? Rupert Murdoch has “The Weekly Standard.” It has got a lot of other interests. It has got “The New York Post.” Would you break it up?

DEAN: On ideological grounds, absolutely yes, but...

Did he actually just say he would break up a media outlet for disagreeing with him? Unbelievable.
...
MATTHEWS: Well, let me ask it-let me ask it totally open. Do you think a person has a right to work somewhere if they don’t want to join a union?

DEAN: I do.
No, wait a minute. I don’t.

(LAUGHTER)

LMAO... what can you say about that... but wait there's more...

MATTHEWS: So you wouldn’t repeal 14B?

DEAN: No, I would not, but...

MATTHEWS: So you are different than Gephardt. He is with the unions.
You are not.
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: I’m serious.

DEAN: All right...
...
MATTHEWS: You are against-you do not believe in repealing 14B?
You’re not going to accept the challenge from Gephardt to do that?

DEAN: If I got a bill on my desk that repealed 14B, I’d sign it in an instant. I’m just not going to push it hard...

First of all didn't he just say, not 10 seconds ago, that he wouldn't repeal it? Now he's saying he wants to repeal it but just not enough to actually do anything about it actively? What does that mean? This is just pathetic to watch, he's so afraid of pissing someone off he's talking out of both side of his mouth at the same time. He doesn't want to piss off the states rights people so he won't "push it hard" but he doesn't want to piss off the unions so he'd "sign it in an instant". What a joke. There's more, just read the whole thing and have a good laugh.

The UN disarmament campaign in Afghanistan expands to Kabul next week. Under the plan, militia are given money, food and a job in return for them giving up their weapons and re-entering peaceful society.

But equally interesting in the linked article is the about-face of Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim, the defense minister and warlord of the Panjshir valley. Fahim has ignored requests by Karzai to remove his militia from Kabul for the past 2 years. His tone seems to have changed recently as he has not only agreed to remove his militia and place his heavy weapons under supervision of the Afghan National Army (ANA), but he has agreed to also demilitarize his stronghold in the Panjshir valley. As I referenced in an earlier entry, 2 Afghan warlords in the north have also agreed to demilitarize their provinces and merge their forces with the ANA. It seems that as each day goes by the influence of the central government in Afghanistan grows stronger and my optimism for their success grows along with it.

Offices have opened up throughout Afganistan to register voters for the June elections. Due to stepped up Taliban and al-Qaeda activity in Afghanistan, some have expressed doubts that a June election will be possible. Time will tell, but I believe you will see a large NATO presence around election centers and the vote will go off as planned, on or near the planned date. Meanwhile, the Taliban have been calling for the faithful to boycott the elections. Hopefully "the faithful" will listen and do exactly what the Taliban ask of them...

President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has publicly accused China of pointing 496 ballistic missiles at Taiwan. The reason he has made this threat public is he wishes to use a new law that calls for a national ballot regarding "issues of national security concern". The ballot will call for independence from China. He's going to put the vote to the public and the results are either going to send Taiwan on the merger path with China or force China's hand in handling Taiwan independence. It looks like this issue might be finally coming to a head. China has stated many times that a declaration of Taiwan’s independence would mean war and Taiwan might be about to call their bluff. The ballot, if it takes place, will be held along with presidential elections on March 20th.

If Taiwan declares independence it puts China in a very difficult situation. On one hand they have publicly stated that they would take Taiwan by force if they formally reject the "One China" policy. On the other hand, China doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of taking over Taiwan if the population chooses to fight. This would be an economic disaster for both Taiwan and China and the ramifications are difficult to predict for the stability of the region. China must know they don't have the military capability to take Taiwan but their posturing has put them in a terrible position. They would face humiliation if Taiwan broke away and they did nothing. Expect the rhetoric coming out of China to become explosive up until the March 20th ballot in an attempt to frighten the Taiwanese population into submission.

According to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. the number of announced job cuts fell by 42 percent in November to 99,452. Personally I wouldn't get overly excited about this as the reports from Challenger have been all over the map historically...

The terrorists in Iraq have changed their strategy to attacking well protected US convoys in mass. There are disputes about how many of the enemy were killed in the last battle but what can't be disputed is this is a change of strategy for the terrorists... and it's a bad one. The question is why? Why would they go head to head with a military convoy and face our military might directly? The answer is in what the convoy was carrying, new Iraqi currency for distribution to the banks. This was an attempted robbery, not an attack on US forces. The terrorists needed this money and they needed it so bad they decided to confront us head to head for it. It was simple desperation. From all accounts the Baathists were able to steal billions from Iraq before they fled Baghdad. But, they have one problem. Much of that money is in Saddam banknotes, a currency that will soon be out of circulation. Their money is becoming worthless and they're going to be broke soon. No more money to pay for attacks, no more terrorism.

Their problem stems from the fact that they have so much money in the old currency it would raise alarms for them to convert it in the quantities necessary. They could distribute it to people who will bring in a little here and a little there, but more than likely much of this money will just end up being stolen by the people it was entrusted with. Expect to see more attacks of this nature. They most likely learned a lesson in this last conflict and will instead focus on stealing directly from Iraqi banks in the future.

Factory production shot up to a 20 year high according to a report by the Institute for Supply Management. Well, at least that's how the article puts it, which is a little misleading. What they meant to say was factory expansion as a percent of production shot up to a 20 year high, actual production has been trending up almost every year since World War 2.

Also, looks like Bush hasn't decided on whether to dump the steel tariffs or not. I hope he comes to his senses soon, the steel tariffs are hurting our economy and were only put into place to get votes. As I explained in an earlier blog entry, the vast majority of manufacturing job losses in the US are not due to unfair competition abroad but instead due to productivity increases in the US.

Lastly, housing construction is still growing. This housing news has been the silver lining to the recessionary cloud. Home ownership has exploded over the last few years as low interest rates have made the buy vs. rent decision lean more towards buy. Home ownership makes America stronger by redistributing economic growth to the masses from the few that rent out space to others. It also allows people to borrow at far lower interest rates through mortgages instead of borrowing through their credit cards. 68.4% of American families own their own homes as of the 3rd quarter, a remarkably high number and an all time record.

Look out for 4th quarter GDP expectations among economists to increase to the 5-6% range. My personal expectation is that we'll end up seeing at least 6%.

According to Visa e-commerce retail transactions, using their cards, are up a startling 46% in the 2 days since Thanksgiving compared to last year. Total sales over these 2 days on Visa credit and debit cards are up 12% year on year.

In northern Iraq 46 enemy forces were killed, 18 injured and 8 captured in a failed ambush attempt on the 4th ID. There were also 5 US soldiers and 1 civilian injured in the battle. Thankfully, none of the wounded Americans suffered any life-threatening injuries. Apparently many of the attackers wore the uniform of Saddam's Fedayeen.

A nuclear scientist from Iraq has claimed that Saddam's own people lied to him about their progress on weapons of mass destruction. They claim Saddam demanded that they develop the weapons but they lacked of resources to follow through. They were forced to lie about their progress for fear of Saddam's reaction to bad news. The scientists were involved pre-1991, but it is possible that this trend continued after they fled the country. It would make sense... if Saddam told you to do something that you couldn't do, what would you tell him? Would you say it's impossible and get thrown in prison and likely tortured or would you tell him what he wanted to hear and hope your ruse was never found out? Interesting quote from the article:

"They put a lot of lies on Saddam Hussein," he said in a Baghdad interview. "They took a lot of money out of him through what you call, in English, bluffing." When their installations were finally demolished, it "saved their necks" by burying their mistakes, he said. "They could tell Saddam, `There's nothing left.'"

A 16 year old boy got shot in the heart with a nail gun causing him to have a massive heart attack. Doctors expected that his heart would continue to deteriorate and the prognosis was grim. They decided that his only hope was to try an experimental stem cell procedure in which they injected stem cells retrieved from his body directly into his heart. Amazingly it worked; the stem cell procedure regenerated the boy's heart.

Get ready to become very angry... The doctors had a news conference in which they announced their miraculous results and upon hearing this the FDA promptly shut down future trials. Why? Because for some inexplicable reason the FDA feels that it is their right to make life and death decisions on terminally ill patients. We are talking about people who will die without experimental procedures being told, in the words of the FDA representative, that they “would be exposed to a significant and unreasonable risk” from these procedures. Unreasonable risk?!? What part about these people dying without the procedure does the FDA not understand? The fact that they would even make this statement is pure insanity. It is obvious that if someone is going to die based on currently accepted medical practices then the floodgates should be open and any experimental practice is fair game in the fight to save their life. Exactly what side-effect is the FDA worried about that is worse than death?

If you're curious here's a brief explanation of stem cells. When a sperm merges with an egg a small ball of cells is eventually formed. This ball has an outer layer that eventually form the placenta and an inner layer that are embryonic stem cells. These embryonic stem cells are what caused the huge ethical argument in the US recently which ended with Bush signing a bill ending their creation for use in research. It's both relevant and interesting to note that embryonic stem cells are immortal. What I mean by that is individual embryonic stem cells die, but they can reproduce indefinitely and to unlimited quantities. Other specific function cells in the human body don't have this ability and eventually stop reproducing. Anyway, these embryonic stem cells eventually start to differentiate from each other and form all the different types of cells in the human body. The way they know how to do this is not something we fully understand but it has to do with chemical signals they receive and their proximity to other stem cells that are undergoing the same process. The result is that the stem cells transform themselves into all the other cells that make us human; bones, blood, muscles, organs etc. It's an amazing process. In addition, new stem cells are produced in your body throughout your life, but these are not embryonic stem cells. They are what are referred to as adult stem cells. These cells only have the ability to turn into one or sometimes a few of the different cells in your body. So adult stem cells serve the same function as embryonic stem cells but they are far more limited in what they can become. It appears that the human body uses these adult stem cells to repair damage to itself. For example the skin has a huge amount of adult stem cells that can become skin cells; it is believed that the reason is that the skin is replaced so often. In some parts of the body they haven't found adult stem cells that can be used to regenerate those parts, for example the brain. This is why embryonic stem cells are so useful; they can become any other cell in the human body. The medical procedure that doctors are performing using stem cells is quite simple in most cases. They find stem cells that are compatible with the person (from the person themselves or a relative usually) and then simply inject them into the body part that needs to be regenerated. The stem cells figure out where they are and what they should be (we're not sure exactly how) and they literally recreate the body part by turning themselves into the damaged cells. It's revolutionary.

Btw, you can check the Tristem entry below for related news on stem cells.

The central government of Afghanistan issued an order that the two major warlords in the north, General Abdul Rashid Dostum and General Atta Mohammed, were to stop clashing with each other and turn over their military power to the central government. They have accepted the ruling of the central government and now are in the process of turning over their armored vehicles to the newly created Afghan National Army (ANA). The rest of their military forces are to be merged and placed under command of the ANA also. General Atta Mohammad is quoted as saying "We agree to whatever the minister and the government decide, and I agree to the two military corps being merged,". This is a huge victory for Karzai and bodes well for the transition of power from the regional warlords to the central government.

Looks like we struck a deal with the British over their 9 detainees being held in Guantanamo. This whole issue has been a huge headache for Tony Blair. He's been getting pressure from all sides, the conservatives and his own party, to demand that the US transfer the prisoners to Britain. We did the right thing working with Blair on this one, especially considering how great an ally Britain is and how steadfast Blair was in the face of mounting criticism at home.

On a side note, in the article you'll notice that the Guardian takes quite a few shots at the US about the "innocence" of the detainees. I find it interesting that the only person they bother to quote on the issue of guilt or innocence is the lawyer representing the suspects... and here I was thinking that their attorney might say they were probably guilty. You can imagine how shocked I was to hear that he actually thinks they're innocent! You know, without the Guardian's in depth investigating on this issue we might never have found out whether their own attorney thinks they're guilty or innocent.